A DEMOCRACY activist wins the Nobel Peace Prize and the president of one of the world’s most powerful democracies begrudges her the honour.
The best author would struggle to coin such a neat ending for the story of the demise of democracy. The prize, after all, implies how exceptional the fight for democratic norms has become in this century. Such a bleak reading of María Corina Machado’s victory may seem counter-intuitive given the flurry in recent months of protest activity around the world.
According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Global Protest Tracker, there have been more than 142 significant anti-government protests over the past 12 months affecting over 68 countries. Analysis by Allianz shows that 18 per cent of these have lasted more than three months.
Peaceful protests have long been considered synonymous with healthy democracy. Research published by Harvard’s Erica Chenoweth in 2019 showed that non-violent protests are twice as likely to succeed in achieving their aims as armed conflict, and that protest movements that reached the ‘tipping point’ of engaging 3.5pc of the population always succeeded.
Against this backdrop, the proliferation of protests should give us solace that civil society is alive and well, and that the routine exercise of the democratic right to peaceful protest indicates that the political system is in less jeopardy than signalled. In recent weeks alone, protests have erupted in Nepal, Madagascar, the US, UK, Italy, Israel, and, closer to home, AJK — as well as Punjab thanks to the TLP. Going by protest volume alone, one could conclude that Machado’s prize is an affirmation of good practice, rather than a callout for exceptional resilience.
But as Pakistanis, we know better. Many protests in our country are feats of democratic participation, organised with integrity and courage — often against all odds — to demand justice, accountability or inclusion (consider women’s and Baloch rights marches). Sadly, some protests are part of a cynical political ploy, engineered by the powers that be and staged by proxies.
They may be unleashed for various reasons: to put pressure on different institutions within our hybrid power structure; to establish the national narrative on sensitive issues; or to offer a release valve for strong emotions when realpolitik requires the state to make strategic decisions that counter public sentiment. In other words, protests are often a ploy to consolidate authoritarian control.
What can be done to save protests?
This knowledge nuances perceptions of the protest activity in other countries, and highlights how protests are interlinked with authoritarian tendencies as much as they are with democratic freedoms. Two trends are evident. Firstly, protests seem to erupt as a last resort, the fallback option when authoritarian approaches are so entrenched that all other political or legislative means to achieving just ends seem ineffective. Such protests are better understood as political barometers for authoritarian overreach; the protest as a dying gasp rather than the birth of something new.
Alternatively, in neoliberal contexts — think the US or Europe — where democratic norms are limping along, protests are triggering fresh authoritarian measures, including clampdowns on protest activity and digital rights, the outlawing of contrarian voices on national security grounds, increased powers of detention, media censorship and citizen surveillance. These protests point to creeping authoritarianism.
Many global protests are dominated by young people, who turn to the streets in lieu of other forms of political engagement. This signals the extent to which traditional paths to political activism have been denuded, particularly with the erosion of youth wings of parties, the stifling of campus politics, and the flagging appeal of in-person political campaigning in the face of TikTok activism.
But this also explains why protests are likely to become less effective even as they are more frequent. Rather than signs of democratic debate, they will draw attention to gaps in authoritarian control, reinforcing rather than undermining the latter. Lacking institutional affiliation, organisational capacity and momentum, protest movements often fizzle out, leaving resentments stirred but not addressed or channelled productively for lasting change.
What can be done to save protests? Researchers point to a few elements of successful protests, even in authoritarian contexts: a strict adherence to non-violence; lawfulness; the participation of a diverse coalition that unites for a cause; and clarity in demands. Let’s hope voices protesting for just causes are able to abide by these principles, and that Machado’s prize inspires more democratic activism than the backlash to it.
The writer is a political and integrity risk analyst.
X: @humayusuf
Published in Dawn, October 13th, 2025
